Ask The Experts: On-Trend Growth Expected For Global Economy
Stephen Halmarick, Head of Investment Markets Research, First State Investments, shares his views on the global economy.
What's your view for the global economy in 2012?
- Outlook remains difficult for 2012
- Overall global economic growth to be 3%, close to trend
- Different growth rate across regions; Europe to be the weakest with a possible recession
- US growth to be in the range of 2 to 2.5%
- In developing world especially in Asia, strong growth is expected
What are the catalysts you see driving growth in 2012?
- Growth in Asia to come from easing of policies in the region
- Inflation rates have peaked in many countries in 2011, monetary easing expected in 2012
- Government stimulus plans in countries like China will also support growth
- Picking up of inter-regional trade
What are the risks investors should be aware of?
- Europe remains the primary risk
- Elections in US pose an uncertainty for the US economy
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